Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Marlins- Esteury RuizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ruiz homered to left (396 feet), Jiménez scored.7–2
- 3Crawford singled to right, Realmuto scored, Reyes to third.7–0
- 1Stott homered to right center (412 feet), Bohm scored and Marsh scored.6–0
- 1Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored, Bohm to third.3–0
- 1Marsh walked, Schwarber scored, Bohm to second, Harper to third.2–0
- 1Bohm grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turner scored, Harper to second, Schwarber to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / MIA +112
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.7%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- MIA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 11–78th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–25 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15–2 | 19–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 25–18 MIA in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.