Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Garrett StubbsBatting1-2
- Andrew PainterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lopez reached on infield single to shortstop, Ruiz scored, Marsee to third.0–4
- 5Edwards homered to right center (392 feet).0–3
- 3Norby walked, Lopez scored, Ramírez to second, Edwards to third.0–2
- 3Ramírez walked, Stowers scored, Edwards to second, Lopez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML PHI +108 / MIA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.4%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–24 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14–2 | 19–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 25–17 MIA in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 42.