Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez singled to right, Sanoja scored.6–5
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Lopez scored.6–4
- 8Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Stowers scored.6–3
- 8Lopez reached on infield single to second, Marsee scored, Stowers to second.6–2
- 7Stott homered to right center (386 feet), Marsh scored and Sosa scored.6–1
- 7Sosa singled to right, Harper scored, Marsh to third.3–1
- 4Crawford doubled to right, Stott scored, Bohm to third.2–1
- 4Bohm singled to center, Marsh scored, Stott to third.1–1
- 1Edwards doubled to right, Lopez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +26 Elo | PHI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 10–67th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–24 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14–2 | 18–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 24–17 MIA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 41.