Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alexander tripled to right, Basallo scored.7–4
- 7Edwards grounded out to shortstop, Lopez scored.6–4
- 7Rutschman doubled to left, Ward scored.6–3
- 5Rutschman doubled to right, Ward scored.5–3
- 4Beavers hit a ground rule double, Taveras scored.4–3
- 1Caissie singled to right, Marsee scored, Morel to third.3–3
- 1Marsee doubled to left, Stowers scored and Norby scored.3–2
- 1Alonso homered to left center (407 feet), Ward scored and Rutschman scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML BAL +109 / MIA -131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −5 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +29 Elo | MIA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 30 |
| 19th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–11–1 | 21–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.