Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras singled to right, Alonso scored, Rutschman to second.9–7
- 9Rutschman singled to left, Ward scored, Alonso to second.8–7
- 8Ruiz scored on throwing error by catcher Basallo, Caissie stole second.7–7
- 8Ruiz scored on throwing error by catcher Basallo, Caissie stole second.7–7
- 7Lopez homered to center (415 feet).7–6
- 7Hicks homered to right (431 feet).7–5
- 5Cowser grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Basallo scored.7–4
- 5Basallo tripled to right, Alonso scored.6–4
- 3Mack singled to left, Stowers scored, Norby to second.5–4
- 3Basallo singled to right, Ward scored and Alonso scored.5–3
- 2Hicks singled to center, Caissie scored and Pauley scored, Edwards to third.3–3
- 1Edwards scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Hicks to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.3–1
- 1Edwards scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Hicks to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.3–1
- 1Basallo doubled to center, Alonso scored.3–0
- 1Alonso doubled to left, Beavers scored on error and Ward scored, Alonso safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Stowers.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML BAL +115 / MIA -138
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.5%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -125
- BAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +31 Elo | MIA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.112th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–11 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–20 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–11–1 | 20–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.