Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9García Jr. singled to right, Millas scored and Wood scored, García Jr. to second.7–8
- 9Millas singled to center, Tena scored.5–8
- 8Jiménez hit sacrifice fly to center, Ruiz scored.4–8
- 8Marsee homered to right (376 feet), Stowers scored and Norby scored.4–7
- 7Edwards homered to left center (422 feet).4–4
- 6Caissie hit sacrifice fly to center, Norby scored.4–3
- 4Stowers homered to right (380 feet), Lopez scored.4–2
- 3Lile hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.4–0
- 1Abrams singled to right, García Jr. scored and House scored.3–0
- 1Wood homered to right center (442 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 59%
- ML WSH +135 / MIA -163
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +12 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +61 Elo | MIA 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 12–1216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 147724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–17 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–12–3 | 22–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–20 MIA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 40.