Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robby SnellingPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 1Lopez scored on error, Stowers safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Mead, Stowers safe at second on error.3–2
- 1Edwards homered to left center (400 feet).3–1
- 1Young homered to left (403 feet), Abrams scored.3–0
- 1Abrams singled to center, Mead scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML WSH +117 / MIA -141
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -127
- WSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +2 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Robby Snelling (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +25 Elo | MIA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 12–1115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 28th of 301457 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–17 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–11–3 | 22–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 19–20 MIA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 39.