Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Jeffers homered to left (407 feet), Larnach scored.0–3
- 5Marlins challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Trevor Larnach steals (2) 2nd base. Byron Buxton steals (4) home.0–1
- 5Buxton stole home, Larnach stole second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIA -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −13 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 10–1017th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–25 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 23–16–2 | 23–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–3 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.