Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández singled to left, Marsee scored and Morel scored.2–5
- 8Morel singled to center, Ruiz scored.2–3
- 5García Jr. doubled to left, Vivas scored, Wood to third.2–2
- 4House grounded out to shortstop, García Jr. scored.1–2
- 3Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards scored on error, Hicks safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Nuñez, Hicks safe at third on error.0–2
- 3Hicks singled to right, Mack scored, Edwards to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML WSH +114 / MIA -137
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −1 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +55 Elo | MIA 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 13–1216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 28th of 301457 | Elo rating | 147824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–17 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–12–3 | 23–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–21 MIA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 41.