Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Coleman CrowPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers doubled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to third.3–2
- 8Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Chourio scored on interference by third baseman Lewis.2–2
- 7Lewis singled to left, Keaschall scored, Lewis to second, Clemens thrown out at third.1–2
- 6Lee grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Outman scored, Martin out at second.1–1
- 1Contreras reached on infield single to third, Chourio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML MIL -109 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 43.2%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- MIL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | MIL: Coleman Crow: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 12–1118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–17 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20–1 | 25–15–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–5 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.