Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Anthony BenderPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Twins- Austin MartinBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martin singled to right, Outman scored.1–9
- 8Outman doubled to left, Kreidler scored and Keaschall scored.1–8
- 8Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored, Hicks to third.1–6
- 3Outman singled to right, Kreidler scored, Outman to second.0–6
- 2Caratini grounded out to second, Jeffers scored, Bell to third.0–5
- 2Bell doubled to left, Outman scored and Martin scored, Jeffers to third.0–4
- 2Martin hit a ground rule double, Lewis scored and Kreidler scored, Outman to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIA -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −12 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 11–1119th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–26 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–17–2 | 24–15–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–4 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.