Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Quero homered to center (407 feet), Meidroth scored.8–9
- 10Bregman grounded out to shortstop, Swanson scored, Busch to second, Hoerner to third.8–7
- 9Conforto homered to center (414 feet), Bregman scored and Suzuki scored.7–7
- 8Peters homered to right (359 feet), Benintendi scored and Quero scored.4–7
- 5Vargas doubled to right, Murakami scored and Peters scored.4–4
- 4Benintendi doubled to left, Vargas scored.4–2
- 4Bregman reached on infield single to second, Swanson scored, Hoerner to third.4–1
- 2Quero singled to center, Montgomery scored, Benintendi thrown out at third.3–1
- 1Bregman scored on Fedde wild pitch, Suzuki to second on wild pitch by Fedde.3–0
- 1Bregman scored on Fedde wild pitch, Suzuki to second on wild pitch by Fedde.3–0
- 1Busch homered to right (379 feet), Hoerner scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -132 / CHW +109
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −8 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 13–1010th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 146527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–25 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–18–4 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–3 CHW in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.