Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hill homered to left center (417 feet).5–6
- 6Garcia singled to right, Loftin scored.5–5
- 6Loftin doubled to left, Collins scored and Jensen scored.4–5
- 5Meidroth homered to left (359 feet), Vargas scored and Montgomery scored.2–5
- 5Vargas singled to center, Antonacci scored.2–2
- 5Romo homered to right (353 feet).2–1
- 1Perez homered to right center (381 feet).2–0
- 1Witt Jr. homered to right (373 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- KC: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −7 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +39 Elo | KC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 145927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–20 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23–1 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 31–12 CHW in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 43.