Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-3
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Romo scored.1–2
- 8Grichuk homered to left (377 feet).1–1
- 1Arozarena singled to center, Rodríguez scored on error, Arozarena to second, Naylor to second, Naylor safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Peters.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -141 / CHW +117
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -127
- CHW +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +24 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 1.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 8–923rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301517 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–24 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21–2 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–5 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.