Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting2-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk homered to left (378 feet).12–8
- 8Peters doubled to left, Benintendi scored, Kelenic to third.12–7
- 8Kelenic singled to center, Vargas scored, Benintendi to second.12–6
- 8Naylor homered to center (403 feet), Donovan scored and Rodríguez scored.12–5
- 7Raley homered to right (372 feet), Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.9–5
- 5Rodríguez homered to center (418 feet).6–5
- 3Montgomery doubled to center, Antonacci scored, Vargas scored and Murakami scored.5–5
- 3Antonacci singled to center, Peters scored.5–2
- 3Raley homered to right center (372 feet), Naylor scored, Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.5–1
- 2Young hit by pitch, Naylor scored, Canzone to second, Arozarena to third.1–1
- 1Murakami homered to left (380 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -138 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.1%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -125
- CHW +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 7–822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301518 | Elo rating | 145728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–23 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20–2 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 15–4 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.