Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Meidroth homered to left (372 feet).3–4
- 5Schanuel doubled to right, Trout scored.2–4
- 5Neto homered to left center (410 feet).2–3
- 1Soler homered to center (410 feet).2–2
- 1Trout homered to left (367 feet).2–1
- 1Quero hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.2–0
- 1Grichuk singled to right, Meidroth scored, Montgomery to second, Vargas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML CHW -103 / LAA -117
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 51.7%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- LAA -106
- CHW +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 6–1027th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 27th of 301461 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 14–9 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.