New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Ronny MauricioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mauricio homered to center (421 feet).4–3
- 6Semien singled to center, Soto scored and Alvarez scored.3–3
- 6Alvarez singled to center, Bichette scored, Soto to second.1–3
- 3Neto scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez.0–3
- 3Neto scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez.0–3
- 1Soler homered to left center (403 feet), Trout scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML NYM -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −12 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +10 Elo | NYM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 5–728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 145328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–21 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14–4 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–4 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.