Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Montgomery singled to right, Murakami scored, Vargas to second.6–0
- 4Vargas homered to right center (378 feet).5–0
- 4Murakami homered to center (429 feet), Antonacci scored.4–0
- 1Benintendi singled to center, Murakami scored, Meidroth to third.2–0
- 1Meidroth singled to center, Antonacci scored, Murakami to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 59%
- ML CHW +133 / LAA -161
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 51.4%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -144
- CHW +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +20 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +10 Elo | LAA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 6–927th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 145129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 13–9 LAA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.