New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Peraza singled to center, Frazier scored, Adell to second, Soler to third.3–4
- 7Taylor singled to center, Semien scored.3–3
- 7Ibáñez hit sacrifice fly to center, Vientos scored.2–3
- 4Grissom singled to center, Soler scored and Adell scored.1–3
- 3Bichette singled to center, Slater scored.1–1
- 1Adell singled to right, Schanuel scored, Soler thrown out at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -122 / LAA +102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -111
- LAA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +32 Elo | NYM 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 145229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–21 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15–4 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–4 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.