New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vientos homered to left (378 feet), Benge scored.5–1
- 8Benge doubled to right, Baty scored.3–1
- 4Vientos homered to center (427 feet), Benge scored.2–1
- 1Soler singled to center, Neto scored, Trout to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -136 / LAA +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −8 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +31 Elo | NYM 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 6–827th of 30 |
| 25th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 145329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–22 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16–4 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–5 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.