Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-3
- Noah SchultzPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Angels- Travis d'ArnaudBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored, Teodosio to third.2–8
- 7Antonacci hit by pitch, Meidroth scored, Romo to second, Benintendi to third.2–7
- 4Adell hit by pitch, Neto scored, Soler to second, Grissom to third.1–7
- 4Soler hit by pitch, Teodosio scored, Grissom to second, Neto to third.1–6
- 2Trout reached on infield single to second, Neto scored.1–5
- 2Neto tripled to right, Teodosio scored.1–4
- 2d'Arnaud homered to left (396 feet), Soler scored and Schanuel scored.1–3
- 2Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Montgomery scored, Meidroth to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML CHW -113 / LAA -107
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.0%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- CHW -103
- LAA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −5 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW 0 Elo | CHW 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 7–1026th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 27th of 301460 | Elo rating | 144929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 14–10 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.