Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-3
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Quero hit sacrifice fly, Meidroth scored, Grichuk out at second, Kelenic to third.1–6
- 5Vargas homered to left (404 feet).1–5
- 5Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to left, Garver scored.1–4
- 3Vargas homered to left center (410 feet), Antonacci scored.0–4
- 1Montgomery homered to right (367 feet), Antonacci scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -131 / CHW +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +45 Elo | SEA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 7–926th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–23 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20–2 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 16–4 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.