Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gage WorkmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Enmanuel De JesusPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pérez singled to center, Greene scored, Pérez to second.6–3
- 6Workman homered to right (382 feet), Torkelson scored.5–3
- 4Garcia singled to center, Caglianone scored, Garcia to second.3–3
- 3Jensen hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.3–2
- 3Pasquantino singled to left, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.3–1
- 2Vierling doubled to center, Lee scored on error and Short scored on error, Vierling safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Isbel.3–0
- 2Lee tripled to right, Pérez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML DET +109 / KC -131
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- KC: Elo 49.5%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −7 | DET: Brenan Hanifee: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 13–98th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20–2 | 16–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 28–16 KC in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 44.