Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Yoshida scored on error and Rafaela scored on error, Narváez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Keith, Narváez safe at second on error.4–0
- 3Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Narváez scored, Durbin to third.2–0
- 3Durbin doubled to left, Mayer scored, Narváez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML BOS -110 / DET -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 50.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −12 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 12–54th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–24 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17–1 | 18–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 14–11 DET in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.