Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Payton TollePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dingler doubled to left, Vierling scored and Keith scored.5–4
- 7Mayer singled to right, Abreu scored, Rafaela to third.5–2
- 7Abreu singled to left, Yoshida scored.4–2
- 7Duran homered to left (381 feet), Narváez scored and Monasterio scored.3–2
- 6Vierling grounded into fielder's choice to third, Keith scored and Jones scored on throwing error by third baseman Monasterio, Vierling to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -126 / DET +104
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +13 Elo | DET 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 12–31st of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–23 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17–1 | 16–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–11 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.