Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Dingler singled to left, McGonigle scored, Carpenter to second.10–3
- 4Abreu homered to right (396 feet).10–2
- 4Contreras homered to left center (449 feet).9–2
- 3Kiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Durbin scored, Wong out at second.8–2
- 3Wong singled to center, Monasterio scored, Durbin to third.7–2
- 3Durbin singled to left, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second.6–2
- 3Monasterio singled to center, Story scored, Rafaela to second.5–2
- 3Rafaela singled to center, Contreras scored, Story to second.4–2
- 1Pérez singled to center, Jones scored, Greene to third.3–2
- 1Vierling homered to left (365 feet).3–1
- 1Rafaela homered to right center (362 feet), Abreu scored and Story scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML BOS +133 / DET -161
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DET: Elo 53.7%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -144
- BOS +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | BOS: Jovani Moran (no track record yet) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 12–41st of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–24 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17–1 | 17–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 13–11 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.