Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Isbel singled to left, Loftin scored.3–4
- 8Garcia singled to center, Isbel scored.3–3
- 8Isbel singled to right, Massey scored on error, Isbel safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Pérez, Isbel safe at third on error.3–2
- 6Torkelson doubled to left, Pérez scored.3–1
- 6Pérez doubled to center, Dingler scored.2–1
- 2Collins singled to right, Caglianone scored.1–1
- 2Torkelson grounded into double play, third to second to first, Greene scored, Pérez out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML DET +123 / KC -149
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- KC: Elo 51.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +12 Elo | KC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 11–911th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–21 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18–2 | 16–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 28–14 KC in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 42.