Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic homered to center (446 feet).10–5
- 8Kelly hit a ground rule double, Bregman scored and Suzuki scored, Shaw to third.10–4
- 8Shaw walked, Busch scored, Suzuki to second, Bregman to third.8–4
- 8Swanson scored on Hicks wild pitch.7–4
- 8Swanson scored on Hicks wild pitch.7–4
- 7Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Suzuki scored, Kelly to second, Shaw thrown out at home.6–4
- 7Kelly reached on infield single to third, Bregman scored, Shaw to second, Suzuki to third.5–4
- 6Vargas homered to right (348 feet).4–4
- 5Romo doubled to right, Benintendi scored.4–3
- 5Peters grounded out to second, Meidroth scored, Benintendi to third.4–2
- 5Suzuki doubled to left, Busch scored, Happ to third.4–1
- 5Busch doubled to right, Hoerner scored.3–1
- 4Kelly singled to center, Happ scored, Ballesteros to third.2–1
- 2Montgomery homered to right center (381 feet).1–1
- 1Happ singled to center, Bregman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -126 / CHW +104
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +69 Elo | CHC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 146427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18–4 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–2 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.