Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hill singled to center, Antonacci scored.2–6
- 7Garcia grounded out to shortstop, Isbel scored.2–5
- 4Meidroth singled to center, Acuña scored.1–5
- 3Grichuk singled to center, Meidroth scored and Vargas scored, Murakami to second.1–4
- 1Grichuk homered to left center (401 feet), Murakami scored.1–2
- 1Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -136 / CHW +113
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- KC: Elo 53.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +26 Elo | KC 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 11–913th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 146227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–20 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23–1 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 31–14 CHW in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 45.