Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. homered to left center (405 feet), Jensen scored.5–6
- 7Montgomery homered to right (399 feet).3–6
- 5Kelenic doubled to right, Benintendi scored and Montgomery scored, Kelenic thrown out at third.3–5
- 4Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored and Thomas scored.3–3
- 4Loftin hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–3
- 3Meidroth hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.0–3
- 2Peters scored on error, Romo safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Pasquantino.0–2
- 2Peters doubled to right, Kelenic scored, Peters to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -114 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- KC: Elo 52.5%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +17 Elo | KC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 146127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–20 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23–1 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 31–13 CHW in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 44.