Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crow-Armstrong homered to right (380 feet), Conforto scored.3–8
- 6Benintendi homered to right center (406 feet).1–8
- 6Amaya homered to left center (372 feet).1–7
- 5Murakami homered to center (428 feet), Antonacci scored.0–7
- 3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Colson Montgomery homers (442 feet) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
- 3Murakami homered to center (391 feet).0–4
- 1Vargas homered to left center (421 feet), Antonacci scored and Murakami scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -113 / CHW -107
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.2%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -103
- CHW +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +26 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 1.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +51 Elo | CHC 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 12–1012th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301546 | Elo rating | 146227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18–4 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–2 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.