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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Brewers.TV

Away

Brewers

27-18

9–3

at

Home

Cubs

29-19

MIL 41%CHC 59%

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Wrigley Field · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Brewers.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.

CHC75%50%75%MILStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Brandon SproatPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs
  • Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Shota ImanagaPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 6Yelich doubled to left, Turang scored, Contreras to third.9–3
  • 5Busch doubled to center, Hoerner scored.8–3
  • 5Swanson homered to left (430 feet), Kelly scored.8–2
  • 5Bauers homered to right (419 feet), Yelich scored and Vaughn scored.8–0
  • 4Chourio singled to center, Frelick scored, Ortiz to third.5–0
  • 4Frelick doubled to left, Bauers scored and Vaughn scored.4–0
  • 4Bauers singled to center, Contreras scored, Vaughn to third.2–0
  • 2Yelich homered to right (409 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cubs 59%

LeanMiss
MIL 41%CHC 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
CHC 59%
ML MIL +135 / CHC -163
Pre-line forecast
CHC 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHC 52%
Ratings vs. market
−6.9 pts
CHC: Elo 52.4%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
CHC -146
MIL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 4.8 – 5.7 CHC
Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILCHCWhy
Team rating15521541Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−6+2MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCHC +16 EloCHC 52.4%
Market-implied ratingsCHC 55.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHC 55.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCHC 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatCHC
6th of 305.0Runs scored5.14th of 30
3rd of 303.6Runs allowed4.211th of 30
4th of 30+1.4Margin+0.95th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 104–619th of 30
7th of 3011–9Road vs home18–51st of 30
22nd of 301495Opponent Elo150510th of 30
3rd of 301552Elo rating15414th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersCubs
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILCHC
Run line25–1921–26
Last 106–44–6
Favorite13–1513–17
Underdog12–48–9
Overs–unders21–22–125–18–4
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 24–20 CHC in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 44.