Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Buxton scored on error, Bell safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Shewmake.2–1
- 1Paredes homered to left (382 feet), Peña scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML HOU +115 / MIN -138
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.6%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -125
- HOU +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −5 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–16 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 147525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–30 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–18–3 | 26–17–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–11 MIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.