Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Astros- Zach DezenzoBatting2-4
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka homered to left center (393 feet).8–0
- 7Nimmo doubled to left, Higashioka scored.7–0
- 7Higashioka singled to center, Osuna scored and Burger scored.6–0
- 7Burger doubled to left, Pederson scored and Duran scored, Osuna to third.4–0
- 5Burger homered to right (356 feet), Osuna scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -126 / HOU +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–25 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26–2 | 28–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–28 HOU in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 48.