Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- Jakob JunisPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 1Perdomo doubled to right, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML ARI -105 / TEX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +28 Elo | TEX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–17 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17–4 | 15–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–9 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.