Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3
- Michael SorokaPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 1Lowe homered to center (435 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML PIT -132 / ARI +109
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 3.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −15 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +18 Elo | ARI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 9–57th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 150514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–18 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15–1 | 18–12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–11 ARI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.