Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting1-2
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Del Castillo singled to right, Marte scored.0–9
- 8Marte singled to right, Thomas scored, Marte to second.0–8
- 6Carroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to second.0–7
- 6Marte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Thomas scored, Perdomo third.0–6
- 6Perdomo doubled to right, Arenado scored and Moreno scored, Thomas to third.0–5
- 6Moreno doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Arenado to third.0–3
- 1Vargas doubled to center, Carroll scored.0–2
- 1Del Castillo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored, Carroll to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML PIT +108 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.5%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -118
- PIT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 18–12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–10 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.