New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Vargas singled to left, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored, Del Castillo to second.1–2
- 2Baty doubled to center, Semien scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML NYM -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −8 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 9–813th of 30 |
| 29th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 150014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–23 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20–4 | 18–15–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 15–9 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.