New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Austin SlaterBatting2-3
- Christian ScottPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jake McCarthy hits a grand slam (448 feet) to right field. Brenton Doyle scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Willi Castro scores.2–6
- 6McCarthy doubled to center, Rumfield scored, Castro to third.2–2
- 4Castro singled to right, Freeman scored, Johnston to third.2–1
- 2Taylor singled to left, Semien scored, Taylor thrown out at second.2–0
- 2Ibáñez hit sacrifice fly to left, Slater scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -136 / COL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +53 Elo | NYM 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 7–1127th of 30 |
| 29th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 15114th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–22 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | — |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18–4 | 17–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 14–9 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.