New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Karros singled to center, Beck scored.4–2
- 7Beck tripled to center, Castro scored.4–1
- 6Vientos singled to center, Torrens scored and Soto scored.4–0
- 6Torrens doubled to right, Alvarez scored.2–0
- 6Benge homered to right center (436 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -149 / COL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +56 Elo | NYM 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 7–925th of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–22 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | — |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17–4 | 16–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–9 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.