New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Marcus SemienBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman hit by pitch, Moniak scored, Rumfield to second, Goodman to third.10–5
- 9Semien homered to left (395 feet), Baty scored.10–4
- 6McCarthy homered to right center (401 feet), Johnston scored.8–4
- 6Johnston doubled to right, Freeman scored.8–2
- 6Rumfield homered to right (389 feet).8–1
- 6Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Torrens scored on error, Bichette out at second, Taylor safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Julien.8–0
- 6Bichette singled to center, Alvarez scored, Torrens to third.7–0
- 6Soto hit sacrifice fly to right, Benge scored.6–0
- 6Alvarez singled to left, Semien scored, Benge to third.5–0
- 4Torrens grounded out to second, Benge scored.4–0
- 4Benge singled to right, Baty scored and Semien scored.3–0
- 1Soto homered to left center (435 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML NYM -161 / COL +133
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.3%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -144
- COL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +65 Elo | NYM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 7–1027th of 30 |
| 29th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15124th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–22 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | — |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18–4 | 16–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–9 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.