Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jansen singled to left, Osuna scored, Burger to second.5–6
- 9Burger singled to left, Duran scored, Osuna to second.5–5
- 9Duran doubled to left, Jung scored.5–4
- 9Vargas singled to left, Perdomo scored and Arenado scored.5–3
- 9Arenado doubled to left, Carroll scored, Perdomo to third.3–3
- 7Arenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.2–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Arenado scored.1–3
- 5Burger homered to right (370 feet), Carter scored and Osuna scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML ARI -109 / TEX -111
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.4%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -101
- ARI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +31 Elo | TEX 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 10–1018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18–4 | 16–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–10 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.