Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Arenado scored.4–7
- 9Gurriel Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Tawa scored, Vargas out at second, Arenado to third.3–7
- 9Vargas singled to center, Carroll scored, Arenado to second, Tawa to third.2–7
- 5Burger singled to right, Duran scored, Osuna to second.1–7
- 5Osuna singled to center, Jung scored, Duran to third.1–6
- 5Seager scored on error, Duran safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Perdomo, Jung safe at third on error.1–5
- 5Seager grounded into fielder's choice to first, Nimmo scored.1–4
- 4Duran homered to right (338 feet).1–3
- 2Burger singled to right, Duran scored, Osuna to second.1–2
- 2Vargas homered to left center (422 feet).1–1
- 1Pederson homered to right (380 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML ARI +109 / TEX -132
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX 0 Elo | TEX 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 9–1023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–17 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18–4 | 15–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–9 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.