Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting1-3
- Jack LeiterPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Shewmake singled to left, Allen scored, Alvarez to second.0–2
- 3Paredes homered to left (355 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -114 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.2%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +2 Elo | TEX 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 10–1326th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 17–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24–2 | 28–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–26 HOU in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 46.