Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford doubled to center, Raley scored.8–3
- 6Shewmake doubled to left, Walker scored and Alvarez scored.7–3
- 6Young doubled to right, Garver scored and Canzone scored, Young to third.7–1
- 4Garver homered to left (369 feet), Crawford scored.5–1
- 3Alvarez homered to center (422 feet).3–1
- 1Raley homered to left center (368 feet), Donovan scored and Arozarena scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -119 / HOU -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.8%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +12 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +8 Elo | HOU 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 10–1224th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–23 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24–2 | 27–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 31–15 HOU in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 46.