Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Braden ShewmakeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5De La Cruz singled to left, Trevino scored, Friedl to second, McLain thrown out at home.1–3
- 5McLain singled to left, Benson scored and Steer scored, McLain to second, Trevino to second, Trevino safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Cole.1–2
- 5Shewmake homered to right center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML HOU +135 / CIN -163
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -146
- HOU +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +11 Elo | CIN 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 10–913th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–23 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–12–1 | 24–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–7 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.