Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Whitcomb singled to right, Allen scored, Shewmake to second.10–0
- 9Vázquez homered to left center (385 feet).9–0
- 9Cole homered to right (376 feet), Smith scored and Matthews scored.8–0
- 8Paredes grounded out to second, Altuve scored.5–0
- 6Alvarez homered to right center (407 feet), Altuve scored.4–0
- 2Dezenzo homered to right (359 feet), Matthews scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML HOU +109 / CIN -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 10–89th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–23 | 22–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–12–1 | 23–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–7 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.