Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Astros- Braden ShewmakeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone hit sacrifice fly to right, Arozarena scored, Raley to third.10–2
- 9Crawford walked, Raleigh scored, Raley to second, Arozarena to third.9–2
- 7Arozarena doubled to right, Raleigh scored.8–2
- 5Crawford singled to left, Arozarena scored.7–2
- 4Canzone homered to right (381 feet), Arozarena scored, Raley scored and Crawford scored.6–2
- 3Walker doubled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.2–2
- 2Shewmake singled to center, Dezenzo scored.2–1
- 2Arozarena homered to left (369 feet), Raleigh scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -180 / HOU +148
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.4%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -159
- HOU +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 9–1125th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23–2 | 26–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 30–14 HOU in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 44.