Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Paredes singled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.3–1
- 3Rodríguez homered to left (414 feet).3–0
- 2Young singled to right, Raley scored, Canzone to second.2–0
- 2Canzone singled to left, Arozarena scored, Raley to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -156 / HOU +129
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–11 | Road vs home | 9–1023rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–25 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–2 | 26–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 29–14 HOU in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 43.