Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Steer homered to left (355 feet).0–5
- 5McLain walked, De La Cruz scored, Dunn to second, Bleday to third.0–4
- 4Stephenson singled to right, Bleday scored.0–3
- 4Bleday tripled to right, De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML HOU +100 / CIN -121
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.4%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +24 Elo | CIN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 11–912th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–24 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–13–1 | 24–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–8 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.